Short answer: who knows? Such is the speed at which the world order is unravelling that any accurate prediction seems pointless.
However local yard owners are nevertheless wary of what might be in store, particularly in light of the frosty relations between Washington and Pretoria. With Agoa in the balance, and additional US tariffs an ever-present threat, most local yard stakeholders are not counting their hulls before they’re hatched.
Then again, South African boat builders have weathered multiple storms before in the form of intermittent power supply and port bottlenecks – to name but a few examples. If tariffs come, local boat builders are confident the sector will adapt, one way or another.
“The tariffs will definitely be an issue but I think there are ways around it,” said one prominent yard manager. “The way I see it American owners could have their vessels registered elsewhere (Bimini, Caribbean, Malta, Isle of Mann etc.)”
Retaliatory tariffs against imports might drive up local the price of boat parts – another potential hazard, and possibly be more tricky to navigate, the source said. “Almost all the material and components for all SA boat builders are imported.”
Most stakeholders appear more concerned about a ‘Trump-style’ once-off tariff than the potential loss of AGOA eligibility when the trade pact comes up for renewal later this year. “Our feeling is that if the AGOA agreement falls away it’s not going to be a train smash. But if, however, Trumps slaps a massive tariff on imported boats then that’s a different story.
“The US market is already a tough market to deal with as the typical buyer has the attitude that they ‘own you’ from the minute they sign the deal … each deal requires way more input than a typical buyer from Europe. If the US becomes unplayable … we’ll make a plan!”
Image: By Daniel Torok – Official 2025 portrait.